Crystal Ball Professional Introductory Tutorial

Crystal Ball® 2000 Professional Edition is a suite of easyto-use Microsoft® Excel® add-in software that helps you analyze the risks and uncertainties associated with your spreadsheet models. The suite includes analysis tools for Monte Carlo simulation (Crystal Ball), time-series forecasting (CB Predictor), and optimization (OptQuest) as well as developer kits for building custom interfaces and processes. Spreadsheets alone are inadequate for assessing the probability of an event because they lack the ability to generate and analyze alternative scenarios in a sophisticated way. Spreadsheet add-ins such as Crystal Ball can provide this functionality and help modelers gain new insights into the mechanisms that drive their models and affect positive outcomes. This tutorial uses the example of an emerging media product to discuss how the analytical tools of Monte Carlo simulation and time-series forecasting can provide a greater understanding and quantification of the risks inherent in a spreadsheet-based business decision.